Credit Union Compass

CU Funding Compass Week of June 26, 2024

The US bond market has worked its way close to breakeven for the year, thanks to two straight months of gains that have left the benchmark Treasury index down just 0.15% for 2024. With traders focused on every data point, extending the current run will require sustained evidence of a slowing economy and softer inflation…
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CU Funding Compass Week of June 20, 2024

The bond market has recently seen signs of improvement, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield recently giving back a chunk of its 2024 gains. Investors are betting that cooling US prices will convince the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner and by more than officials have signaled, effectively putting a lid on how…
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CU Funding Compass Week of June 13, 2024

Policymakers kept rates steady at a more than two-decade high on Wednesday and dialed back their forecasts to pencil in just one quarter-point rate cut by year end, about half of what markets are pricing in. This morning’s PPI report had already delivered what traders were waiting for, the key measure of inflation cooled to…
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CU Funding Compass Week of June 6, 2024

Bonds fell yesterday as traders weighed mixed economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Earlier Wednesday, a private payrolls reading highlighted that hiring at US companies grew at the slowest pace since the start of the year. Traders are now gearing up for Friday’s monthly payrolls report, which is expected to show…
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CU Funding Compass Week of May 22, 2024

Treasury yields rise as investors digest Fed speaker comments. Several Fed officials urged patience when it comes to rate cuts as inflation remains above the central banks 2% target range. Fed Governor Christopher Wallace said he would like to see more good data on the inflation front before lowering rates. Share Certificate issuance has increased…
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CU Funding Compass Week of May 8, 2024

Economic data is taking a bit of a breather this week after the onslaught of last week, culminating in what can be described as “bad news is good news” with the weak jobs report.  Yields retreated from this year’s high water mark under the hope that a softening labor market could still spur the Fed…
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CU Funding Compass Week of April 17, 2024

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is making waves for his contemporaries around the world as the prospect of higher-for-longer US interest rates reduces room for policy easing elsewhere. Powell on Tuesday signaled the Fed will wait longer than previously anticipated to cut borrowing costs following a series of surprisingly high inflation readings — marking a…
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CU Funding Compass Week of April 10, 2024

US inflation topped forecasts for a third straight month (Core CPI + 0.4% MoM), ushering a fresh wave of price pressures that will likely delay any Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts until later in the year. Treasury yields and the dollar jumped while S&P 500 index futures tumbled. The 10yr UST yield traded through the psychological…
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CU Funding Compass Week of April 3, 2024

Bond Market participants are projecting fewer rate cuts than the Feds median forecast for the first time this year. Fed fund futures are forecasting about 65 basis points of rate reductions in 2024, compared to the 75 basis points signaled by the median estimate of projections released following the Fed’s meeting. The benchmark 10-year note…
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CU Funding Compass Week of March 26, 2024

Open transactions for what was ultimately a rather muted quarter end have begun to close and issuance for early April has assumed a moderate pace.  Treasuries steadily march to the upside with sentiment regarding a June rate cut beginning to shift from what was once a foregone conclusion to increasingly unlikely. What this means for…
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