CU Funding Compass Week of February 7, 2024

Bonds prices fell this morning before a record $42 billion sale of 10-year Treasuries, with investors also awaiting a handful of Federal Reserve speakers for clues on the interest-rate path. US policymakers have left interest rates unchanged since July and have signaled the central bank’s next move is likely a cut. Several officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have indicated they’re not in a rush to do so thus shifting market expectations for the timing of the first interest-rate cut toward May or June. Fed Fund futures now indicate only a 25% chance of a March cut whereas recently that figure has been as high as 70%.

Share Certificate issuance has been consistent with a wide range of market participants entering, focused primarily on short-term maturities. A lack of market depth at longer durations have provided attainable funding levels with more intrinsic value than hanging on the front end of the curve as indicated with today’s opportunities.

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Deposit Funding Compass Week of July 11, 2024

This morning saw CPI prints come in lower than expected, with inflation falling 0.1% in June and bringing the year-over-year rate near it’s lowest in more than 3 years, supporting the case of those calling for lower rates. Chairman Powell reiterated Wednesday recent price readings have shown “modest further progress,” and “more good data” would…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of July 3, 2024

The 10-year yield took a leg down following economic releases Wednesday signaling that the labor market is cooling. ADP data showed fewer jobs were added than expected in June, while weekly claims for unemployment benefits came in higher than economists forecast. The latest numbers are a prelude to Friday’s closely watched nonfarm payroll report for…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of June 26, 2024

The US bond market has worked its way close to breakeven for the year, thanks to two straight months of gains that have left the benchmark Treasury index down just 0.15% for 2024. With traders focused on every data point, extending the current run will require sustained evidence of a slowing economy and softer inflation…
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CU Funding Compass Week of June 26, 2024

The US bond market has worked its way close to breakeven for the year, thanks to two straight months of gains that have left the benchmark Treasury index down just 0.15% for 2024. With traders focused on every data point, extending the current run will require sustained evidence of a slowing economy and softer inflation…
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CU Funding Compass Week of June 20, 2024

The bond market has recently seen signs of improvement, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield recently giving back a chunk of its 2024 gains. Investors are betting that cooling US prices will convince the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner and by more than officials have signaled, effectively putting a lid on how…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of June 20, 2024

The bond market has recently seen signs of improvement, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield recently giving back a chunk of its 2024 gains. Investors are betting that cooling US prices will convince the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner and by more than officials have signaled, effectively putting a lid on how high Treasury…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of June 13, 2024

Policymakers kept rates steady at a more than two-decade high on Wednesday and dialed back their forecasts to pencil in just one quarter-point rate cut by year end, about half of what markets are pricing in. This morning’s PPI report had already delivered what traders were waiting for, the key measure of inflation cooled to…
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CU Funding Compass Week of June 13, 2024

Policymakers kept rates steady at a more than two-decade high on Wednesday and dialed back their forecasts to pencil in just one quarter-point rate cut by year end, about half of what markets are pricing in. This morning’s PPI report had already delivered what traders were waiting for, the key measure of inflation cooled to…
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CU Funding Compass Week of June 6, 2024

Bonds fell yesterday as traders weighed mixed economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Earlier Wednesday, a private payrolls reading highlighted that hiring at US companies grew at the slowest pace since the start of the year. Traders are now gearing up for Friday’s monthly payrolls report, which is expected to show…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of June 6, 2024

Bonds fell yesterday as traders weighed mixed economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Earlier Wednesday, a private payrolls reading highlighted that hiring at US companies grew at the slowest pace since the start of the year. Traders are now gearing up for Friday’s monthly payrolls report, which is expected to show…
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