CU Funding Compass Week of January 5, 2024

Juxtapose data points have somewhat confused traders this morning as a sharp sell off in rates following the non-farm payroll report has been tapered by a dismal ISM release. US job growth picked up in December(+216k) and wage gains exceeded expectations, diminishing prospects for an imminent Federal Reserve interest-rate cut initially. Expectations for a March cut were reduced to about 50/50 following the NFP release then crept back up to approx. 60% when ISM showed the US service sector came close to stagnating at the end of 2023. Their overall gauge of services decreased 2.1 points, the most since March, to 50.6 in December, the biggest contraction in more than three years. Supply abounded this week in the brokered Share Certificate market as credit unions looked to capitalize on lower interest rates and a market nursing a new year hangover with regard to issuance. The result, over 150 new Share Certificates printed between Tues and Weds alone which may have essentially weeded out the more aggressive or speculative levels that buyers were willing to accept with the drought of new deal flow the last couple weeks of 2023.
 
Today’s opportunities still represent an appreciable degree of speculation as coupons are still well below like-term Treasury yields, though many have been recalibrated from prior weeks to express more accurately where we feel buyers will express interest while maintaining as much relative value to benchmark levels as possible. 

Additional Resources

Deposit Funding Compass Week of February 29, 2024

The US economy expanded at a slightly slower rate at the end of last year as a downward revision to inventories masked stronger household spending and investment. GDP rose at a revised 3.2% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, compared with a prior estimate of 3.3%. Consumer spending advanced at a 3% rate. Inflation was revised higher. The Federal Reserve’s…
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CU Funding Compass Week of February 29, 2024

The US economy expanded at a slightly slower rate at the end of last year as a downward revision to inventories masked stronger household spending and investment. GDP rose at a revised 3.2% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, compared with a prior estimate of 3.3%. Consumer spending advanced at a 3% rate. Inflation was revised higher. The Federal Reserve’s…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of February 22, 2024

The Treasury options market is sending bearish signals and bond traders are bracing for the risk of a renewed selloff, driving a surge of trading targeting higher yields and prompting investors to unwind long positions by the most in nearly two years. The trend gained momentum this week, when there was strong demand for contracts…
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CU Funding Compass Week of February 22, 2024

The Treasury options market is sending bearish signals and bond traders are bracing for the risk of a renewed selloff, driving a surge of trading targeting higher yields and prompting investors to unwind long positions by the most in nearly two years. The trend gained momentum this week, when there was strong demand for contracts…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of February 14, 2024

US consumer prices jumped at the start of the year, tempering hopes for a continued drop in inflation and likely delaying any Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, increased 0.4% from December, more than expected and the most in eight months. Treasury yields jumped (5yr T’s…
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CU Funding Compass Week of February 14, 2024

US consumer prices jumped at the start of the year, tempering hopes for a continued drop in inflation and likely delaying any Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, increased 0.4% from December, more than expected and the most in eight months. Treasury yields jumped (5yr T’s…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of February 7, 2024

Bonds prices fell this morning before a record $42 billion sale of 10-year Treasuries, with investors also awaiting a handful of Federal Reserve speakers for clues on the interest-rate path. US policymakers have left interest rates unchanged since July and have signaled the central bank’s next move is likely a cut. Several officials, including Chair…
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CU Funding Compass Week of February 7, 2024

Bonds prices fell this morning before a record $42 billion sale of 10-year Treasuries, with investors also awaiting a handful of Federal Reserve speakers for clues on the interest-rate path. US policymakers have left interest rates unchanged since July and have signaled the central bank’s next move is likely a cut. Several officials, including Chair…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of February 1, 2024

In a press conference Wednesday following the Fed’s announcement that they will leave rates unchanged chairman Powell signaled that by the time the Fed meets again in March he expects a rate cut to be on the table. The Fed’s policy statement released earlier Wednesday included several tweaks that suggested the central bank was taking…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of January 24, 2024

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said it’s “premature” to think interest-rate cuts are around the corner, noting she needs to see more evidence that inflation is on a consistent trajectory back to 2% before easing policy.  The FOMC is anticipated to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a fourth straight meeting on Jan.…
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