CU Funding Compass Week of October 18, 2023

Treasuries tumbled, driving two-year yields to a 17-year high, after a surprisingly large jump in retail sales last month increased speculation that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again. Yields rose across the maturity spectrum led by the five-year, which rose as much as 17 basis points to the highest level since 2007. The two-year note’s rise to 5.207%, last seen in 2006, exceeding its Sept. 21 high. The 10-year Treasury yield rose as much as 15 basis points and approached 4.86%, just shy of the year-to-date peak reached on Oct. 6, which was the highest level since 2007. Swap contracts tied to Fed rate decisions showed traders are pricing in more than 60% odds that policymakers will raise interest rates by another quarter percentage point in January after holding steady in November. A move in December is considered possible but less likely than January.

Liquidity in the Share Certificate market has been easy to find inside of the 3yr maturity mark but beyond that point participants face increasingly attractive alternatives in the aforementioned US treasury curve as investors in SHARE Certificates demand a premium to risk free US debt. Embedded call options still remain an attractive option to extend duration at little relative premium to short term pricing though that spread too has begun to widen. We anticipate a busy November as credit unions look to get in front of what is typically a crowded market at year end and an increasingly likely additional rate hike in the beginning of 24’.

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CU Funding Compass Week of May 22, 2024

Treasury yields rise as investors digest Fed speaker comments. Several Fed officials urged patience when it comes to rate cuts as inflation remains above the central banks 2% target range. Fed Governor Christopher Wallace said he would like to see more good data on the inflation front before lowering rates. Share Certificate issuance has increased…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of May 22, 2024

Treasury yields rise as investors digest Fed speaker comments. Several Fed officials urged patience when it comes to rate cuts as inflation remains above the central banks 2% target range. Fed Governor Christopher Wallace said he would like to see more good data on the inflation front before lowering rates. CD issuance has increased roughly…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of May 16, 2024

A measure of underlying US inflation cooled in April for the first time in six months, a small step in the right direction for Federal Reserve officials looking to start cutting interest rates this year. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, increased 0.3% from March, according to government data out…
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CU Funding Compass Week of May 8, 2024

Economic data is taking a bit of a breather this week after the onslaught of last week, culminating in what can be described as “bad news is good news” with the weak jobs report.  Yields retreated from this year’s high water mark under the hope that a softening labor market could still spur the Fed…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of May 8, 2024

Economic data is taking a bit of a breather this week after the onslaught of last week, culminating in what can be described as “bad news is good news” with the weak jobs report.  Yields retreated from this year’s high water mark under the hope that a softening labor market could still spur the Fed…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of May 2, 2024

In a widely expected move, the U.S. central bank kept its benchmark short-term borrowing rate in a targeted range between 5.25%-5.50%. The federal funds rate has been at that level since July 2023, when the Fed last hiked and took the range to its highest level in more than two decades. The rate-setting Federal Open…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of April 24, 2024

Treasuries hold small losses during US morning ahead of record $70 billion 5-year note sale at 1pm EST. Much of this week’s focus will be on data, particularly GDP tomorrow, along with PCE on Friday. If the PCE report on Friday comes in hot we expect to see a reaction in our market, with rates…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of April 17, 2024

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is making waves for his contemporaries around the world as the prospect of higher-for-longer US interest rates reduces room for policy easing elsewhere. Powell on Tuesday signaled the Fed will wait longer than previously anticipated to cut borrowing costs following a series of surprisingly high inflation readings — marking a…
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CU Funding Compass Week of April 17, 2024

Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell is making waves for his contemporaries around the world as the prospect of higher-for-longer US interest rates reduces room for policy easing elsewhere. Powell on Tuesday signaled the Fed will wait longer than previously anticipated to cut borrowing costs following a series of surprisingly high inflation readings — marking a…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of April 10, 2024

US inflation topped forecasts for a third straight month (Core CPI + 0.4% MoM), ushering a fresh wave of price pressures that will likely delay any Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts until later in the year. Treasury yields and the dollar jumped while S&P 500 index futures tumbled. The 10yr UST yield traded through the psychological…
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