Deposit Funding Compass Week of December 6, 2023

The ADP employment report showed that 103,000 jobs were added in the private sector in November. This was below the consensus expectation for today’s report and also below the consensus expectation for Friday’s BLS report (headline: 187k, private: 160k). Rate markets priced for deep cuts in early 2024 may get a shock next week if the Federal Reserve reiterates that it will keep interest rates at their peak well into next year. Fed sentiment remains neutral, which we expect to be maintained, as consumer financial conditions aren’t tight.

CD issuances remain concentrated at the front end though the recent reprieve in longer term rates has spurred more activity further out the curve. The next two weeks before the Christmas and New Years holiday historically prove to be very busy for funding, we encourage any institutions that anticipate the need for liquidity to enter sooner than later as to avoid the congestion as we creep closer to year end.

Additional Resources

CU Funding Compass Week of June 20, 2024

The bond market has recently seen signs of improvement, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield recently giving back a chunk of its 2024 gains. Investors are betting that cooling US prices will convince the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner and by more than officials have signaled, effectively putting a lid on how…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of June 20, 2024

The bond market has recently seen signs of improvement, with the benchmark 10-year Treasury note yield recently giving back a chunk of its 2024 gains. Investors are betting that cooling US prices will convince the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates sooner and by more than officials have signaled, effectively putting a lid on how high Treasury…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of June 13, 2024

Policymakers kept rates steady at a more than two-decade high on Wednesday and dialed back their forecasts to pencil in just one quarter-point rate cut by year end, about half of what markets are pricing in. This morning’s PPI report had already delivered what traders were waiting for, the key measure of inflation cooled to…
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CU Funding Compass Week of June 13, 2024

Policymakers kept rates steady at a more than two-decade high on Wednesday and dialed back their forecasts to pencil in just one quarter-point rate cut by year end, about half of what markets are pricing in. This morning’s PPI report had already delivered what traders were waiting for, the key measure of inflation cooled to…
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CU Funding Compass Week of June 6, 2024

Bonds fell yesterday as traders weighed mixed economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Earlier Wednesday, a private payrolls reading highlighted that hiring at US companies grew at the slowest pace since the start of the year. Traders are now gearing up for Friday’s monthly payrolls report, which is expected to show…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of June 6, 2024

Bonds fell yesterday as traders weighed mixed economic data for clues on the Federal Reserve’s next steps. Earlier Wednesday, a private payrolls reading highlighted that hiring at US companies grew at the slowest pace since the start of the year. Traders are now gearing up for Friday’s monthly payrolls report, which is expected to show…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of May 31, 2024

Inflation rose roughly as expected in April, with markets paying close attention to when interest rates might start coming down, according to a measure released Friday that is followed closely by the Federal Reserve. The core reading for the personal consumption expenditures price index, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2% in April. That…
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CU Funding Compass Week of May 22, 2024

Treasury yields rise as investors digest Fed speaker comments. Several Fed officials urged patience when it comes to rate cuts as inflation remains above the central banks 2% target range. Fed Governor Christopher Wallace said he would like to see more good data on the inflation front before lowering rates. Share Certificate issuance has increased…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of May 22, 2024

Treasury yields rise as investors digest Fed speaker comments. Several Fed officials urged patience when it comes to rate cuts as inflation remains above the central banks 2% target range. Fed Governor Christopher Wallace said he would like to see more good data on the inflation front before lowering rates. CD issuance has increased roughly…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of May 16, 2024

A measure of underlying US inflation cooled in April for the first time in six months, a small step in the right direction for Federal Reserve officials looking to start cutting interest rates this year. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, increased 0.3% from March, according to government data out…
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