Deposit Funding Compass Week of February 7, 2024

Bonds prices fell this morning before a record $42 billion sale of 10-year Treasuries, with investors also awaiting a handful of Federal Reserve speakers for clues on the interest-rate path. US policymakers have left interest rates unchanged since July and have signaled the central bank’s next move is likely a cut. Several officials, including Chair Jerome Powell, have indicated they’re not in a rush to do so thus shifting market expectations for the timing of the first interest-rate cut toward May or June. Fed Fund futures now indicate only a 25% chance of a March cut whereas recently that figure has been as high as 70%.

CD issuance has been consistent with a wide range of market participants entering, focused primarily on short-term maturities. A lack of market depth at longer durations have provided attainable funding levels with more intrinsic value than hanging on the front end of the curve as indicated with today’s opportunities.

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Deposit Funding Compass Week of February 29, 2024

The US economy expanded at a slightly slower rate at the end of last year as a downward revision to inventories masked stronger household spending and investment. GDP rose at a revised 3.2% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, compared with a prior estimate of 3.3%. Consumer spending advanced at a 3% rate. Inflation was revised higher. The Federal Reserve’s…
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CU Funding Compass Week of February 29, 2024

The US economy expanded at a slightly slower rate at the end of last year as a downward revision to inventories masked stronger household spending and investment. GDP rose at a revised 3.2% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, compared with a prior estimate of 3.3%. Consumer spending advanced at a 3% rate. Inflation was revised higher. The Federal Reserve’s…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of February 22, 2024

The Treasury options market is sending bearish signals and bond traders are bracing for the risk of a renewed selloff, driving a surge of trading targeting higher yields and prompting investors to unwind long positions by the most in nearly two years. The trend gained momentum this week, when there was strong demand for contracts…
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CU Funding Compass Week of February 22, 2024

The Treasury options market is sending bearish signals and bond traders are bracing for the risk of a renewed selloff, driving a surge of trading targeting higher yields and prompting investors to unwind long positions by the most in nearly two years. The trend gained momentum this week, when there was strong demand for contracts…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of February 14, 2024

US consumer prices jumped at the start of the year, tempering hopes for a continued drop in inflation and likely delaying any Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, increased 0.4% from December, more than expected and the most in eight months. Treasury yields jumped (5yr T’s…
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CU Funding Compass Week of February 14, 2024

US consumer prices jumped at the start of the year, tempering hopes for a continued drop in inflation and likely delaying any Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, increased 0.4% from December, more than expected and the most in eight months. Treasury yields jumped (5yr T’s…
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CU Funding Compass Week of February 7, 2024

Bonds prices fell this morning before a record $42 billion sale of 10-year Treasuries, with investors also awaiting a handful of Federal Reserve speakers for clues on the interest-rate path. US policymakers have left interest rates unchanged since July and have signaled the central bank’s next move is likely a cut. Several officials, including Chair…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of February 1, 2024

In a press conference Wednesday following the Fed’s announcement that they will leave rates unchanged chairman Powell signaled that by the time the Fed meets again in March he expects a rate cut to be on the table. The Fed’s policy statement released earlier Wednesday included several tweaks that suggested the central bank was taking…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of January 24, 2024

Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said it’s “premature” to think interest-rate cuts are around the corner, noting she needs to see more evidence that inflation is on a consistent trajectory back to 2% before easing policy.  The FOMC is anticipated to leave its benchmark interest rate unchanged for a fourth straight meeting on Jan.…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of January 18, 2024

Bond market participants and prognosticators are beginning to reassess their expectations for rate cuts in 2024. This morning Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic urged policymakers to proceed cautiously toward interest-rate cuts given the potential economic impact of unpredictable events ranging from elections at home to conflicts around the world.  Fed officials have pushed back…
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