Deposit Funding Compass Week of July 6, 2023

The US labor market showed fresh signs of resilience on Thursday as private hiring surged per ADP; layoffs slowed and filings for unemployment stayed relatively low. US companies added almost 500k jobs last month, the most in over a year. Meanwhile, weekly filings for jobless benefits rose by 12K to 248K according to the Labor Department. While that was more than forecast, the figure is still below June’s peak of 265,000 which was the highest since 2021. Treasury yields surged following the data (10yr T’s currently 4.04%), which is expected to further solidify the case for the Fed to raise interest rates at its meeting later this month following last month’s tenuous decision to pause after 10 straight increases.

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CU Funding Compass Week of April 10, 2024

US inflation topped forecasts for a third straight month (Core CPI + 0.4% MoM), ushering a fresh wave of price pressures that will likely delay any Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts until later in the year. Treasury yields and the dollar jumped while S&P 500 index futures tumbled. The 10yr UST yield traded through the psychological…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of April 3, 2024

Bond Market participants are projecting fewer rate cuts than the Feds median forecast for the first time this year. Fed fund futures are forecasting about 65 basis points of rate reductions in 2024, compared to the 75 basis points signaled by the median estimate of projections released following the Fed’s meeting. The benchmark 10-year note…
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CU Funding Compass Week of April 3, 2024

Bond Market participants are projecting fewer rate cuts than the Feds median forecast for the first time this year. Fed fund futures are forecasting about 65 basis points of rate reductions in 2024, compared to the 75 basis points signaled by the median estimate of projections released following the Fed’s meeting. The benchmark 10-year note…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of March 26, 2024

Open transactions for what was ultimately a rather muted quarter end have begun to close and issuance for early April has assumed a moderate pace.  Treasuries steadily march to the upside with sentiment regarding a June rate cut beginning to shift from what was once a foregone conclusion to increasingly unlikely. What this means for…
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CU Funding Compass Week of March 26, 2024

Open transactions for what was ultimately a rather muted quarter end have begun to close and issuance for early April has assumed a moderate pace.  Treasuries steadily march to the upside with sentiment regarding a June rate cut beginning to shift from what was once a foregone conclusion to increasingly unlikely. What this means for…
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CU Funding Compass Week of March 21, 2024

Traders were prepared for the FOMC to push back against their optimism over interest-rate cuts,  and when they didn’t, buy signals flashed across Wall Street.  Global stocks and bonds extended gains on Thursday after Fed policymakers kept rates on hold and continued to pencil in three quarter-point cuts this year. While Powell emphasized the US central bank was…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of March 21, 2024

Traders were prepared for the FOMC to push back against their optimism over interest-rate cuts,  and when they didn’t, buy signals flashed across Wall Street.  Global stocks and bonds extended gains on Thursday after Fed policymakers kept rates on hold and continued to pencil in three quarter-point cuts this year. While Powell emphasized the US central bank was…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of March 14, 2024

Prices paid to US producers rose in February by the most in six months, driven by higher fuel and food costs that add to evidence inflation remains elevated.  The report showed a rise of 1.6% from a year earlier, the largest annual advance since September.  The February reading of the PCE, the Fed’s preferred inflation…
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Deposit Funding Compass Week of March 6, 2024

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated to lawmakers that the US central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates until policymakers are convinced they have won their battle over inflation. In prepared testimony to a House panel Wednesday, the Fed chief said it will likely be appropriate to begin lower borrowing costs “at some…
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CU Funding Compass Week of March 6, 2024

Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated to lawmakers that the US central bank is in no rush to cut interest rates until policymakers are convinced they have won their battle over inflation. In prepared testimony to a House panel Wednesday, the Fed chief said it will likely be appropriate to begin lower borrowing costs “at some…
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